Sanjay's Rugby World

Crusaders v Horrorcanes
Both of these teams may have been semi-finalists last year, but both are struggling. The Crusaders defence appears to be strong, whilst the Horrorcanes have struggled on attack so far. I’m picking a close game, maybe 2-3 tries apeice and a Crusaders win by about 8.

Worrytahs v Islanders
The proud record of the Worrytahs at the Sydney football stadium is in no danger here. Should be another dull game, and Worrytahs should win comfortably by at least 10.

Chiefs v Sharks
The Chiefs are yet to record a win and will be glad to return to Hamilton. The Sharks meanwhile are pretty good tourists and must win this game to set up a successful tour. If they can win this one, they really only need to win another 2 out of their 4 tour games. It may not always be pretty, but i’m sure the Sharks will be effective playing direct rugby. They have fantastic depth too which will ensure the travel factor becomes less of an issue than it has been in the past. Sharks by 10.

Brumbies v Farce
I couldn’t care less about this game, but it presents the Brumbies with a fantastic opportunity to make it 3 from 3. I’m not expecting the Farce to put up too much of a challenge. How strong is their team spirit if Giteau has already said he will go back to the Brumbies next year, and Mitchell is also considering following him? Clearly this Farce team is disjointed, is it time to get rid of them altogether? Brumbies by 8.

Lions v Bulls
Local South African derby’s are often drab, physical encounters wth little running rugby. I’m expecting that to change with a more free flowing game. In a pre-season game the Lions beat the Bulls, but that ain’t gonna happen again! If the Bulls can dominate from the outset and get a start like they did against the Blues, the winning margin could really open up. It will be interesting to see how Loffie Eloff and his team react to a second straight loss after they’ve been quite open about their goals and vision this year. Another win for the Bulls with a bonus point…

Stormers v Blues
Game of the round. The Blues were awful last week but were resting players and have had a horror run of injuries and unavailability. They will be strnegthened with the return of Kaino, and Rockoko this week.
The Stormers have been Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Fantastic at times and the awful Stormers of old at other times. This week they need to step up, with an 80 minutue effort. key to that will be their tactics, as they’ve shown that when they enter the opposition’s 22 they can make them pay. So if they play a tactical game, use the huge boots of Jantjies and Monty to pin the Blues in their half they’ll get the job done and bag the points. Stormers by 8.

Reds v Cheaters
I said if the Cheaters lost last week they’d lose all games on tour…well they could win this one. The Reds have to travel back from capetown and are also winless. The Cheaters should be better acclimatised than the Reds. The Reds play a high risk running game that will click against weak defensively minded teams. for this reason i’m picking them to win by 12.

Wacthing the Super 14 this weekend, I think the game is being dominated by the whistle more than ever. ELV’s look like they are here to stay, at least in the Southern Hemisphere, in some shape of form. it is extremely confusing for spectators, players and referees.

The ELV’s were origninally brought in to promote a more open, attractive style of rugby, and go back to core rugby values. To ensure competition for the ball, and allow the attacking team chances to run the ball.

There is not just one form of the ELV’s, which is where the confusion starts. The internationals tend to use the global ELV’s which retain long arm penalties, whilst the super 14 uses the hybrid ELV’s which utilise short arm free kicks. It’s confusing and in my opinion produces 2 completely different games.

For a start I am not a fan of the ELV’s. We simply need to ensure the laws promote the game as we want it, and then get referees to ALL blow to that interpretation. Having multiple law variations simply makes the differences even greater.

I like to see an emphasis on set pieces, where there is fair, even competition for the ball. The hybrid ELV’s see a lot of aimless kicking from one end to the other. It takes out lineouts, (which is a South African strength) which should be as valuable as scrums in my view. Scrummaging needs to be fair and favour teams with a stronger, better scrum. Allowing weak scrummaging teams ie the Aussies, to be able to compete with no consequences simply takes the physicality out of the game.

At ruck time it is a lottery. Depending on the ref, and how they blow it. I’m seeing way to many variations with some refs favouring the defending teams, and some favouring the attacking teams. And markedly too. One only wants to see a fair contest for the ball if the defenders execute great tackles and are standing over the ball. Otherwise it should favour the attacking team.

Collapsing of the mauls is another rule that has been changed but I just don’t see why. If you can’t defend a maul, that is your fault. It rewarded good technique and physicality. They’ve now taken away a great option close to the try line. The problem in my view was that mauls were allowed to go on too long and should be blown earlier if they don’t have momentum and are rolling forward. The same should apply with tackles and rucks. If someone makes a great tackle and halts the attacking team or even drives them backwards, the attacking team should have to get the ball out quickly else a scrum to the defending team should ensue. Lets reward good play and allow turnovers for defence that moves forward.

The biggest criticism I have though of the hybrid ELV’s is that a free kick does nothing for the game. Sure it keeps the ball in play longer. But you can give away multiple free kicks to simply slow the opposition down, get a turnover at some stage and boot the ball downfield and snuff out their attacking options. With a penalty you get punished with 3 points. It slows the game but every action has consequences. At the moment it can be really hard to get out of your half because if you are infringed against, you don’t necessarily want to kick the ball out because you don’t get the lineout throw (which you do with a penalty) and hence you can get stuck in your own territory for long periods.

The advantage rule has gone 180 degrees too. A few years ago I felt it was way too long, now it is often too short. Teams often don’t even get to see whether they benefit from the advantage, because it’s over as soon as there is a turnover. There is a balance in the middle!

All in all I preferred a forward dominated game where set pieces were important and there was a contest for the ball. The ELV’s are ruining the game and i’m with the Northern Hemisphere on this one…

Horrorcanes (22) v Islanders (17)

Late summer in Wellington, atrocious conditions…do you expect anything else in the capital! Both teams were awful, and the Islanders very nearly stole this game. In the end I think their lack of intelligence cost them. Had they played for territory, the mistakes would have come from the Horrorcanes. Instead they were camped in their own half and when an inevitable mistake came, they were made to pay. Nothing from either team suggested they will threaten this year.

Worrytahs (11) v Chiefs (7)

Another awful game with terrible handling, lack of intelligence and nothing to suggest these teams can go all the way. The Chiefs lack class and direction in their 8-9-10 axis, and don’t have the loose forwards to play a forward orientated game either. The Worrytahs somehow have won 8 home games in a row…someone needs to take that record off them. Wait till the South Africans turn up in Sydney!

Farce (16) v Cheaters (10)

If ever the Cheaters were going to win away, this was it. They had their chances, and simply cannot put together an 80 minute performance. How can they be competitive in the Currie Cup and yet so awful in super rugby each year. They will not win a game on tour and will return to South Africa with 0 wins from their first 6 games. They can only pray they might win some, well 1 or 2, home games and help out their fellow South African teams.

Why oh why can’t we have the Spears playing at the expense of the Cheaters or Lions, they cannot do any worse! They’d get better support and it’d expose more coloured and black players which will help build the game in South Africa…come on you old fogeys on the board do something!

Stormers (27) v Reds (24)

The crowd at Newlands were down on the previous week, the locals still prefer to watch the home teams rather than the foreigners. The reds started off well with a charge down, but why was a lock, Bekker kicking? When we have Jantjies and Grant in the team why don’t we put one kicker on each side of the ruck to cover all options?
After that we regrouped beautifully and played great rugby for the next 20 mins or so. The territorial advantage allowed us to run the ball and we looked good when we gave it air.

After halftime we contiuned on that vein and scored 2 tries. We were completely dominating but simply couldn’t get the bonus point try. And then we started getting camped in our own territory. Especially once Conradie came on we started to do silly things at the base of the ruck and scrum time which just kept us in our own half. With better field position the Reds were able to run the ball and our defence was found wanting.

Why does Rassie not use Monty? I’d have taken Naqelevuki off and moved Jantjies to the wing. Or simply taken Jantjies off. I don’t think Jantjies is the best fullback in South Africa. Monty is still number 1, Terblanche 2nd and if Francois Steyn wants a permanent spot in the Boks, he be better off at fullback. But with all his experience, Monty is still the best and a matchwinner. His boot gets you out of trouble, pings the opposition in their own half, and his positional play gives him all the time in the world to dictate as he sees fit. Use him!

So I was very disappointed to see us conced a bonus point and not get one ourselves. But a win puts us in the right direction. I may have to take back my pre-season prediction of the Stormers going all the way. For me, the tight five and loose forwards are simply not dominating enough to allow us to play with enough territory and possession to be able to score points. It puts all the pressure on the Stormers and as Kitch Christie said “you can only defend for so long”…

Brumbies (18) v Crusaders (16)

This game was there for the taking. The problem is it took 79 mins for the Brumbies to decide they wanted it. The game was a good old fashioned arm wrestle with lots of kicking, planety of midfield defence and not much class. In the end it could have gone either way. Not sure i’d have Stephen Brett at fullback. he’s much better dictating play at flyhalf.

Bulls (59) v Blues (26)

Loftus…The Bulls…awesome…
The Bulle started off fantastically. Territory, possession, pressure. Too big, too strong. Nothing the Blues could do when the Bulls get it right. Some lapses in concentration allowed the Blues back in, but credit to the Bulls for keeping the intensity up right till the end. In the past we’ve tended to open up a decent lead, and try and defend it which has allowed the opposition back in and resulted in close games eg the 40 all draw with the Blues in 1997.
To score a bonus point after 23 minutes was simply superb. Who says the Bulls play 10 man rugby?

Whilst it was a great performance, I still have a few concerns. Dewald Potgieter is getting better and better, but he is still the weak link in the loose forward trio. Wynand Olivier gave away too many penalties and for my mind is still very average at best. How many times do I have to say i’d love to see Julies in number 12! And whilst I have wanted to see Jaco Pretorius in a decent team, he has not shown anything special. Maybe we’d be better off with Julies at 12, and Olivier at 13 where he doesn’t have to make the play so much.

On the plus side, Bakkies was magnificent. He is an awesome athlete, a true powerhouse and his tackle on a Blues player during the first half whilst moving sideways and stopping all their momentum was unbelievable. He hit all the rucks well and is playing out of his skin at the moment. Danie Rousouw did okay in the absence of Matfield, and Spies was a powerhouse too. I hope it silences the critics who think Kankowski is better! Derrick Kuun made some great steals and in the backs I thought Steyn controlled the game well, and Kirchner hit the line well. His try was an example of how simple it can be. Use Spies with his pace, get the scrumhalf into space and utilise the extra man of the fullback hitting the line at pace and into space. Simple. And perfectly executed.

A win next week over the Lions with a full bag of 5 points puts us in great position heading towards the middle of the competition…Go Bulle Go!

Sharks (25) v Lions (10)

The Shark tank was especially hot and humid, but that is no excuse for the poor handling and many mistakes made by both teams. Loffie Eloff said that poor discipline and 2-3 missed opportunities cost them, but they were clearly not the better team. It was pleasing to see Earl Rose kick well, and for someone going backwards I thought he did as well as could be expected. I’d prefer to see him at 12, and La Grange discarded, once Pretorius is back to full fitness.

The Sharks can be disappointed to again miss out on a bonus point. But poor handling at crucial times stopped them from scoring more and running away witht the game. Once again Kankowski disappears when the game gets tight and there is not much space. Heading away on tour if they can win at least 3, they’ll be in a great position for the second half of the competition…

Horrorcanes v Islanders

Surprisingly the Horrorcanes lost at home last week, but they should bounce back against a very poor Islanders team. Depending on the weather in Wellington, there may not be many tries on score which suits me just fine to see no bonus points for theses 2.

Worrytahs v Chiefs

The Worrytahs almost always start the competition well without being that noticeable as they are not star-studded nor flamboyant. In another game of attrition, i’m picking the Worrytahs by about 7-10.

Force v Cheaters

Another game between 2 teams that will not feature in the top half of the competition. The Cheaters do have a good pack and the backs on both sides are of a similar class. It will be up to the Cheaters pack to dominate and players such as Juan Smith, Heinrich Brussouw and co. have to ensure they go forward, win the set pieces and produce their first win away in years. If they don’t this tour will turn into a nightmare as psycholgically the scars will run deep. For the Farce it doesn’t really matter, it just helps determine how far down the bottom they will end up this season.

Stormers v Reds

A massive game for the Stormers at home after already losing 1 home game. The return of Jean De Villiers will help give direction and leadership, but in reality it is the tight five and loosies who must stand up. The tight five must dominate the scrums, and this week they must ensure they win their own ball in the lineouts. That must become a given if this team genuinely wants to be finals contenders. Then the talented back row must come to the party by making the hard yards with ball in hand and scavenging around the breakdowns and effecting at least 4 or 5 turnovers. I thought none of the Stormers loosies really did enough last week, even though they had to do plenty of defending. I’m picking the Stormers by about 12-15.

Brumbies v Crusaders

The Brumbies started off well with an away win, but the quality of opposition improves here. I think this game will be pretty even. The bounce of the ball, or a reffing decision could decide this one but i’ll go with the Crusaders by not many.

Bulls v Blues

The Bulls tried to demonstrate they have learnt lessons from last year and have introduced more variety to their play. Against the reds however they executed poorly and should have won by many more. Even a game with width and air still requires the same basics and dominance, the Bulls don’t need to change everything. Wynand Olivier’s try showed that running into a gap and changing the angles is often all that is required. One doesn’t have to complicate things more than that.
Without captain courageous Matfield however the direction of the team may suffer, and we unfortunately have a habit of making home games closer than they ever need to be. This means the Bulls should win by about 7.
One thing I was thinking prior the Bulls/Reds game was the fact that Matfield rarely misses games or gets injured. I put the mockers on him, but at least it’s not serious and he will only miss 3 games.

Sharks v Lions

Many have been talking up the Lions, but I still think they’ll end up near the bottom. The Sharks simply have to win these sorts of games and they’ll win this one too. They only looked to be getting better and better in their match with the Stormers.
The one thing I still don’t like is the excuse of the humidity and the wet ball not making bonus points easy. These guys are professionals and it is no different to playing in Brisbane or New Zealand in the wet (except for the temperature difference). However you don’t hear them making so many excuses. Sharks to win by 12.

The season is finally underway, and the first week produced 6 games with victory margins 6 or under. I have to say I am not a fan of the hybrid ELV’s, and having different laws for different games is confusing for spectators. Especially when you have the northern hemisphere playing under 1 set of laws, and the same weekend having the southern hemisphere playing with another set.

I got 4/7 in my picks, and by and large week 1 produced the expected results.

The Brumbies showed that the Islanders are going to have a long season. On paper the Brumbies actually have quite a few decent players. If they start the competition well, they may have a chance at a top 6 finish.

The Farce showed they have too many off field distractions to be able to produce a winning culture. They do lack enough class, and consistently lose home games so they will never be a factor. The Blues started well with some away points, but their South African leg at the start of the competition may not ensure enough momentum for the rest of the season.

The Lions started off with a win against a Cheaters team that looked quite good at times. Neither of these teams will challenge for playoff spots, and the Cheaters now go on a road trip having the worst record on the road of all the South African teams. Mentally they have to believe they can win away from home, if not they may not have a win by the time they return home midway through the competition.

The Crusaders beat the Chiefs by a margin of only 6. One feels that the Crusaders are not the team they used to be, and if teams can give them some early losses, they may feel the pressure. Once again the Chiefs lost a game that may haunt them at the end of the season.

The Worrytahs scored the upset of the round, beating the Horrorcanes in Wellington. The crowd was dismal, i’m not sure what the weather was like, but surely Wellington can do better? I didn’t see much from the Worrytahs to suggest they were genuine threats for the title.

Match of the round was the Stormers v the Sharks with a 48000 strong crowd at Newlands. What a fantastic atmosphere they created. The quality of the rugby was great, the intensity breath taking. The Stormers looked good with ball in hand but unlike their coach Erasmus,  I thought they struggled at the set pieces. Lineouts especially were a disaster, and they gave too much ball to the Sharks which meant they went for long long periods having to defend. Eventually there is only so much defending you can do, and it showed as the Sharks scored 2 well constructed tries. All this also coincided with Jean De Villiers having to leave the field, but fortunately his injury is not serious. John Smit for me was a standout, whilst I thought the was one of the quitest games I have ever seen Schalk Burger have. I think both of these teams will make the semis, but the Stormers have some work to do.

At Loftus the Bulls started off well. Under the old laws their pressure would have netted them a handy 9-12 point led, but under the ELV’s they only had 3 points to show for it. The wanted to run the ball but they lacked the ability to straighten the line and change the angles. To a large extent I think Olivier is the culprit although he did get better as the game went on. I would so like to see Julies play. I think he can be the catalyst for more tries, even though you seldom notice him. Spies was strong, as were Botha and Matfield, but I think the other 2 loose forwards didn’t dominate enough. Certainly there were way too many holes around the base of the rucks, and luckily the Reds lacked the resources to capitalise. Still the Bulls got the job done and bagged the 5 points, although i’ll be holding thumbs Matfield’s injury is not serious.

I look forward to week 2 and the Stormers getting a win against the Reds, and the Bulls and Sharks to consolidate their positions…

Islanders v Brumbies

The house of pain is now the house of shame for the Islanders. I am picking the Brumbies to start with a win overseas which will give them great confidence for the rest of the season. For the Islanders it will be a long long season…

Farce v Blues

The Farce have had the weirdest preparation I have seen with their coach undergoing a review. Clearly all is not well, and this will impact them on the field. The Blues to win 12-

Lions v Cheaters

A tough local derby between 2 teams that are likely to struggle this season. Valuable points are up for grabs and this one is too close to call…or care about…

Crusaders v Chiefs

The Crusaders could struggle big time this year without Carter and Robbie Deans. On their day the Chiefs are capable of almost anything. I’m picking the Chiefs to win this one, only just…

Horrorcanes v Worrytahs

Both of these teams have title aspirations are reaching the semi finals consistently over the past few years. I don’t think either team is that spectacular. I’ll go home town advantage and side with the Horrorcanes by 12-

Stormers v Sharks

This game could make or break each of this sides campaign. It is so important to start well. Whilst most are expecting the Sharks to win, I’ve been saying since mid last year the Stormers will go all the way. Stormers in a close game that could be repeated in may as the final

Bulls v Reds

My beloved Bulls, at Loftus…Go Bulle go! (I can’t wait for the new Steve Hofmeyr anthem to be belting out at Loftus!). I’m also looking forward to seeing us play with Matfield, Botha, Spies, Du Preez, Habana…Bulls by 15

This season I am adamant that the Stormers will win the competition (or otherwise the Sharks!). The first game between these 2 teams will be massive in the outcome of the tournament. Many of the other sides have lost key players and the depth overall this year looks a bit weak. For that reason it makes it quite hard to predict the outcome this year as almost anything could happen. I am hoping for a watershed year and 3 South African teams in the semis! Although I do think my Bulls team might find it hard to make the semis.

Overall I am not picking the Aussies to have a great competition, and I think the Kiwi teams will mostly finish around the middle of the table. This could be a year to starta new era in Super rugby with the demise of the Crusaders and the emergence of the Coastal South African teams..

1.   Stormers
2.   Sharks
3.   Blues
4.   Bulls
5.   Horrorcanes
6.   Worrytahs
7.   Crusaders
8.    Chiefs
9.    Brumbies
10. Lions
11. Farce
12. Lions
13. Reds
14. Islanders

With a week and a half to go to kickoff, teams have playing warm up fixtures to hit the ground running.

Some have played up to 3-4 games before kickoff, whilst others opted for 1-2.

As per usual I don’t really care what the Kiwis and Aussies are doing. They have been playing each other. I did note that the Crusaders only just beat the Farce. I think that was in Perth.

In South Africa there have been some interesting results so far.

The Bulls lost to an almost full strength Lions outfit, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. The Bulls then put most of their big guns out against the Pumas (that is the Mpumalunga pumas…not Argentina!). The loss to the Cheaters will be one for them to savour because the Bulls are gonna smash them in the actual super 14! Fourie Du Preez’s hand injury was initially a concern but he should be fit for the opener against the Reds. He’ll need to be at his best alongside Matfield, Botha, Rossouw and Habana if the Bulls are to seriously challenge for the title. One guy who may just get the chance to shine this year is Jaco Pretorius in midfield. I believe the centres have been a glaring weakness over the past 2 seasons, but he could just be the answer. I’d also like to see Julies get some game time as Olivier is solid but doesn’t offer much else. My ideal combination would be Julies and Habana but conservative Frans Ludeke is never going to go for that.

The Lions are talking up their chances, but once again I think they’ll disappoint big time. Conservatism, consistency and lack of class will be their biggest downfalls. It’s a shame for a union that 13 years ago was the world powerhouse. Bring back Louis Luyt!

The Cheaters have got some classy players but They will still struggle week in and week out. It’s good to see Meyer Bosman at flyhalf. Why did we wait 3 years to give him a go there??

The Sharks have started out fairly low key but are very quietly confident of having a big year. Warm up games against the Pumas and second string Bulls should see this team remain fresh in the business end of the competition. They have class all around, great experience and no real weaknesses. With John Plumtree they won’t have the conservative mindset of last year and if they back their ability they’ll be there at finals time, possibly in Durban.

The Stormers have had an interesting buildup. Injuries to key players are not serious but they haven’t built as much momentum as they would’ve liked. Still I back players of the class of Schalk Burger and Conrad Jantjies to slot in easily with little match practice. Wins over Saracens and Boland have highlighted the path forward for the Stormers, with the only real concerns being the lack of cover in the front row and quality jumpers in the second row.

Thanks also to comments from my good friend Deon Wessels. His concern is that I don’t give the Cheaters enough respect, and he thinks they will do well. All I can say is that the Cheaters may have done well in the Currie Cup, but they have disappointed massively in super rugby against better quality opposition.

I also take on board comments that Rassie Erasmus, coach of the Stormers, is a Free State man. Well he saw the light, and moved to a bigger union with more resources and because he genuinely wants to win the competition….And I think he may just achieve it this year…