The fifth week of the Super 14, and the Bulls and Stormers have a chance to solidify their positions as title contenders.
With a full bag of points, the Bulls should be able to remain top of the log, and set themselves up nicely in first position before they go away on tour. The Stormers face potentially their most crucial game of the season, a win here and they will firmly be ensconced in the top 4.
One of the Chiefs and Crusaders will drop further back into the pack, whilst the Waratahs and Brumbies both have important games against weak South African opposition where they will expect to grab bonus points. I’m actually expecting a strong showing from the Lions, and the strong possibility of an upset.
Chiefs v Crusaders – Rugby Stadium, Hamilton
A crunch game for both sides as they want to remain near the top of the log. The best scenario for the Bulls and Stormers is a Crusaders win as they still have to travel to South Africa and may lost log points there. It could also deflate this Chiefs side who have a habit of losing numerous games on the trot (other than last season).
Both sides are evenly matched. Interestingly the Chiefs have opted to rest thug Sione Lauaki after his latest misdemeanour. I’m expecting the Crusaders to have the edge in the forwards, which could lay the foundation for their victory.
Even though the Chiefs backs are more dangerous, if they can;t get quality ball they can be nullified.
The battle of the flyhalves should go to Dan Carter and the Crusaders. Stephen Donald showed last week how unreliable his goal-kicking can be, and Carter will be worth a few more points than Donald.
Crusaders by 11.
Waratahs v Lions – Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney
The Waratahs struggled after having to come back from South Africa last week. That’s 2 games they’ve won without playing well, although they have sharpened their attacking game in recent weeks.
I still don’t think they ask enough questions of the opposition defence, and if the Lions maintain their defensive efforts from Canberra, they have the attacking skills and are improving enough to win this game. The numerous changes from Canberra don’t help however, and I’d have rather seen Burton Francis remain at flyhalf.
Whilst I truly think the Lions might upset here, I’m going with the stats and suggesting Waratahs by 9.
Brumbies v Sharks – Bruce Stadium, Canberra
Neither of these 2 sides have really impressed me this year. The fact that the Brumbies have only ever lost 2 out of their 35 games to South African opposition here holds them in good stead. Even though the first South African side to achieve that was the Sharks, I can’t see that being repeated here.
The major reasons being that other than the end of the Waratahs game when the Sharks actually produced something constructive on attack, they’ve look highly innocuous all season. The major reason being lack of go-forward from their loose forwards, and then lack of straight hard running 2-3 out from the ruck. Too much lateral running has rendered their back three ineffective, and Stefan Terblanche has looked to use his boot rather than run anything back.
It requires something strong like being reduced to 13 men to spark this Sharks side, and I still believe they are playing not to lose, as opposed to seeking the win.
Brumbies by 15.
Bulls v Highlanders – Loftus, Pretoria
Teams often struggle with the bye, but the Bulls appear fresh and ready to go. The Highlanders coming off a demoralising loss to the Stormers are also without inspirational captain Jimmy Cowan and that will blunt an already weak attack.
The Bulls use greater width than the Stormers do, and that will stretch the Highlanders even further than last week, although it may create some space for their outisde backs. Whilst they’ll find it easier to score, they’ll be defending more and the Bulls will threaten much more in attack.
We also owe the Highlanders for a shock upset in Palmerston North last year.This one could get ugly…show no mercy boys!
Bulls by 36.
Stormers v Hurricanes – Newlands, Cape Town
A must win game for the Stormers. Imperative. They showed massive intensity and focus last week, and their defence has been outstanding. It just requires a bit more precision in attack and they have the ability to win this one.
The Hurricanes looked fairly lethargic on the highveld last week, and with Conrad Smith back in the midfield, the Stormers defence will have to be on their game.
It’s in the middle of the forward pack however that I see as the greatest weakness for the Hurricanes, and Andries Bekker in particular should be able to exploit this. If the Stormers can use their driving maul more often, they should be able to gain easy metres and lay the platform for an important victory.
Stormers by 10.
Reds v Force – Brisbane
The Reds struggle to put together 2 decent performances. However this time they’ll be back home, and against a weak, struggling Force side this should be an easy win.
Played during the day on a Sunday, dry conditions will make bonus points the order of the day and hopefully we’ll see an open, attacking game.
Reds by 17.
