Chiefs v Horrorcanes – Hamilton

This game will be evenly contested as both teams are very similar. On their day they can run hot, and equally they are prone to making mistakes and running cold when they get it wrong.

The pool game 2 weeks ago proved how close it will be, but this time i’m favouring the Horrorcanes because they will have less pressure on them, have greater experience and should be able to relax into their game plan a little more. It could come down to individual brilliance, a piece of magic here or there, and who can gain the momentum. A close one but i’m picking the Horrorcanes by 8.

Bulls v Crusaders – Loftus

A repeat of the 2007 semi-final. I’m hoping for the same result, although the disruptions to the Bulls midfield leaves them slightly vulnerable in the backs. I’m not expecting the Bulls to deviate from the tactic they’ve used all season of playing for field position, and utilising the up and under. It allows us to play to our strengths of a strong pack and keep it away from the Crusaders pack.

However this year the Crusaders backs have looked pretty ineffectual. They lack Carter to run the ship, and don’t have any one to set them away in midfield. The Bulls could gain the upper hand out wide by utilising Habana, Ndungane and Kirchner. In all areas we look to have the measure of the Crusaders, except maybe the Richie McCaw factor. Stegmann has a big job to do, and whilst i’m confident he’s up to the challenge, the big factor could be the interpretation of referee Bryce Lawrence.

While the Bulls should be the stronger team and will be looking to avenge the loss in Christchurch this year, the Crusaders will also have to overcome the travel, altitude and the “Loftus” factor.
We don’t lose very often at Loftus, especially not in finals. Bulls by 10.