Mar 17 2009

Week 5 could have blown the log apart, but instead it saw some upset results and a traffic jag around the middle of the log, threatening to make this one of the most evenly contested competitions yet.

Picks 4/6

Blues (46) v Cheaters (12)
The Cheaters are an embarrasmment. They have less chance of winning away from home than SANZAR have of agreeing on a 15th super rugby team. Unfortunately it gifts their opposition 5 points, this time the Blues were the lucky recipients.

Brumbies (21) v Worrytahs (11)
I manged to pick this one based on the fact that the Worrytahs have been winning but playing very poorly. Eventually their luck ran out. The Brumbies had to win at home and will be glad to be back in the race.

Crusaders (23) v Farce (23)
A surprising result that really makes it hard for the Crusaders from here on in. I think their title hopes have gone, although the more upsets there are, the more it helps them. The Farce are a team that surprises all the time, when they are expected to lose watch out, they just can’t win the ones they need.

Islanders (10) v Chiefs (14)
2 teams that are really struggling, but still staying ahead of the bottom place SA teams! The Chiefs were lucky to get out of this one towards the end.

Reds (25) v Sharks (13)
This was a golden opportunity for the torunament favourites to place themselves in a great position with some breathing space at the top of the log. Instead it was a diabolical performance that has questioned their credentials. I hope the week on the Gold Coast was not spent partying, because I just can’t understand how they could play so poorly.

Losing Pienaar was a massive blow, because I think he has been fantastic. He’s not flashy, he just gets the job done. Steyn on the other hand is the most over-rated played in SA. He’s not a flyhalf. He spends too long getting his kick away and doesn’t cope with the lack of space at flyhalf. His dropping of elementary passes was inexcusable, but he can’t handle the pressure. He does some wonderful things, eg the 2 drop goals against Australia, the solo try against Italy, but he is not consistent enough for top level rugby. One can’t keep playing based on reputation.

The pack was just as bad, no one other than Smit consistently does their job. Lineouts weren’t great, and there was no go forward. If you are playing 2 lightweight flankers, you need your number 8 and locks to provide go-forward. Kankowski just not provide that. He is fine running the ball in open play when he has someone like Deysel creatig space for him. But when there is no space or there are presure scrums, he doesn’t get over the advantage line to help his team out. He has the bulk, so i’m not sure what stops him. Hunger and determination to get stuck in I think.

The Sharks have only won 1 out of their last 15 games in Australia. They have to change that this weekend in Perth or they face a tough battle to even make the semis, let alone get their home semi they so desperately seek. Without Pienaar, I fear for their chances.

Stormers (56) v Lions (18)
Every year we see the Stormers struggle in the beginning and then start to win around the middle stages of the competition, before finally leaving their run too late to make the semis. Whilst the same pattern has develped here, I am not sure they’ll be able to get enough points on the road this time. They played well and did everything required to beat a Lions team that is embarrassing. Where is Loffies so called 3 year plan that we are supposed tobe witnessing? 3 year plan my ass! I think he’ll be gone by the end of the super 14, just like the Lions chances in this competition.

Week 6 sees my unbeaten Bulls on the road in a tour that is going to be tough. Go Bulle Go…

SUPER 14 LOG  
   
Bulls 18
Worrytahs 18
Sharks 17
Blues 16
Horrorcanes 14
Brumbies 13
Stormers 12
Chiefs 12
Farce 12
Reds 11
Crusaders 11
Islanders 8
Lions 6
Cheaters 2

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